Despite what have been arguably the worst economic times in over a generation, the mantra of the auction world for the past two years has been that cars of uncompromising quality, will always realize exceptional prices. And, while intuition and logic may have dictated that this couldn’t possibly be true in 2010 and 2011, by and large the doyens of the auction world have been right.
For the past couple of years, as people and portfolios licked their wounds from massive losses, auction blocks from Scottsdale to Amelia and Monterey to Paris have somehow managed to generate one record breaking sale or vehicle price after another. Go figure.
With the start of 2012—and with financial markets showing clear signs of recovery—all eyes in the classic car world were anxiously turned first to Scottsdale and then Amelia Island, as a bell-weather of what the future of the classic car market might look like. As you hopefully read on these pages last month, Scottsdale was nothing short of a barn-burner. With over $180 million in total sales and most of the leading houses realizing a 25-35% increase over the previous year’s sale, Scottsdale suggested that this may be one of the biggest years on record for the sale of collector automobiles. Those more cynically inclined might have chocked up the astronomical Scottsdale sales to disparate factors like pent-up desire, deferred gratification or mutant gamma radiation from solar flares, rather than a growing trend. For them, Amelia would show whether the market’s seemingly voracious appetite could stay hungry.
Well, as you’ll read elsewhere in this issue, apparently many of you are very hungry indeed. David Gooding’s Amelia sale generated a staggering $36 million in sales, a hard to fault 91% sell-through and a bewildering 11 world record sales. RM’s Amelia sale was also an impressive testament to the state of the market, bringing in $23 million in total sales with an 88% sell-through, three world records and six cars selling over $1 million. Just to put all this into perspective, over the course of 60 days (Scottsdale to Amelia) more than a quarter of a billion dollars in classic cars were sold in the U.S. alone. While these numbers boggle my mind, what really fascinates me is the all but overlooked sales that occurred at these auctions, and the possible trends that they may portend.
Being an Alfa Romeo owner, I was curious to see what Gooding was going to be able to get for a pair of 1957 Giulietta spiders at Scottsdale. One was a nicely restored example, the other a complete basket case, replete with all the rust and dirt befitting a true barn find. When all was said and done, I had to have my lower jaw surgically reattached when I learned that the restored car went for $60,500 and the “basket case” went for $19,250! Keep in mind, these were garden-variety Giuliettas, not one-off show cars. Looks like I’m going to have to double or triple the replacement value on my Veloce’s insurance.
At Barrett Jackson’s massive juggernaut of a sale, I was surprised to see another favorite of mine, a 1967 VW 21-window Microbus, sell for $61,600. However, my market compass went completely haywire, when a lovely 1963 VW 23-window Microbus went for a record $128,700! Several years ago, when one of these Microbuses sold at Gooding’s Pebble sale for around $90,000, most people chalked it up to the auction equivalent of a feeding frenzy—in all the amped up excitement, someone over bidding in the heat of the moment. But with these subsequent sales substantiating that seemingly crazy number, the question now
becomes did an aberrant sale reset the market, or was that in fact just the leading indicator in a wholesale shift in a segment’s valuation? With Fiat 500s selling for $30,000 and 1963 Sunroof Beetles selling for $66,000(!) at Scottsdale, I’m inclined to begin believing that some of what used to be considered entry level ’50s and ’60s classics are starting to take off in this new market, in a way few of us would ever have predicted.
Of course, while certain models may realize significant double-digit growth over the next 12 to 24 months, this phenomena won’t apply to everything. While we were at Russo & Steele’s Scottsdale sale, our Associate Editor John Nikas and I stood dumbfounded behind a gentleman as he bid a 1978 Fiat 124 Spider to a $25,300 sale. It was all we could do to not tap him on the shoulder and ask, “You know that’s a Fiat Spider, right?” Feeding frenzy buy? Who knows? Twenty-four months from now, we might be scratching our heads, wondering how we didn’t see the run on Fiats coming.
Casey Annis
Publisher/Editor
